Participants of the international conference "The Image of the Future of Central Asian Countries in a Changing World 2024: Global Threats and Challenges. Allies and Opponents in Solving Economic and Humanitarian Problems," organized by the Center for Expert Initiatives "Oy Ordo" in partnership with the Information-Analytical Portal "Vostochny Ekspres 24" in Bishkek, raised the question: Are there prospects for the initiative to create a Central Asian Union?
According to political scientist Kuban Taabaldiyev, the integration of Central Asian states is a very important process that they will sooner or later have to go through, thus achieving the unification of the entire region, if not at the level of a union, then at least as a confederation.
- This, of course, is still a distant dream; in the near future, unionization is unlikely to occur, because each of the five countries sees the development of our region differently. Each republic has its own interests, goals, intentions, and, most importantly, capabilities. Therefore, we need to take into account the level of development of the states themselves because integration will only happen painlessly when this level is high. Then all parties will be interested in finding points of convergence of positions and uniting the region so that it ceases to be an object and becomes a subject representing regional interests on the international political stage, - the speaker explained.
At the same time, he emphasized that "we cannot wait until we reach a certain level of development, and wait for integration to happen on its own." Therefore, it is important to accelerate the development process.
- Each country is moving towards this at its own pace. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are at a stage of development where they could set an example for the other countries in the region. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also have opportunities for accelerated development. I mean, for example, our natural resources - mountains and water resources, which could help us achieve certain successes. But unfortunately, we do not use them because we still live by Soviet habits, forgetting that water is valuable and real wealth worldwide, - the expert noted.
Speaking about Kyrgyzstan, he emphasized that the country needs a clear action plan to seek investment for specific, albeit not large, projects rather than embarking on global but unsuccessful projects.
- Thus, we will have development and additional points of convergence with neighboring countries, which will ultimately have a positive impact on the prospects for the creation of a Central Asian alliance, - K. Taabaldiyev added.
The opinion that the movement of the region's countries towards the creation of a Central Asian Union increases the region's subjectivity was expressed by a participant from Kazakhstan - Andrey Chebotarev, the Director of the Center for Current Research "Alternativa."
- The process that began in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, in 2018, when the heads of all five Central Asian states began to meet, is very important. And it is gradually expanding. All this not only deepens cooperation between countries but also contributes to the region becoming a single political subject, - the speaker emphasized.
In this regard, he talked about how Central Asian countries cooperate with the European Union.
- The second EU strategy in our region is being implemented now. The first was adopted in 2007, the second in 2019. What is the fundamental difference between these two documents? The difference is that since 2014, a sanctions war has begun between Russia and the West. At that moment, the EU's policy in Central Asia was "suspended"; there wasn't even their special representative. Some activity started only in 2015 when Petr Burian became the special representative, - the speaker reminded.
According to him, the first strategy provided for opportunities for coordination with other intergovernmental organizations. The priority was the OSCE and other Western structures, but the SCO was also mentioned. But cooperation with the EAEU was immediately rejected by the EU.
- The second strategy completely excludes the possibility of interaction with structures where Russia is present," the expert said.
At the moment, the European Union is preparing another strategy for its interaction with the countries of the Central Asian region. But now, not only Russia but also China will be included in the EU's list of adversaries.
- In April, the European Parliament adopted another resolution on Central Asia, which provides for the development of a new strategy. In my opinion, they have now taken on the rhetoric of the "Cold War." European parliamentarians openly say that the EU will cooperate with Central Asian countries only if they minimize their contacts with Russia and China. If a third strategy is developed, then with a high degree of probability, it will contain elements of a sanctions policy, i.e., Europeans will force us to comply with anti-Russian sanctions under the supervision of their controllers, whom they will send to us. In this situation, we will have to outline our positions and let them know that we are not going to cooperate under ultimatums and pressure," emphasized A. Chebotarev.
At the same time, the intention of the EU to launch a new strategy on Central Asia seems somewhat illogical, considering that even the implementation of the second one is not easy for Europeans. Especially from the point of view of implementing economic plans. According to the expert, the only direction where Europeans have succeeded is in various educational programs. However, even this direction does not have a clearly defined future. At the same time, he shared his observations regarding how the geopolitical weight and position of the European Union itself have changed in the current situation.
- The European Union aspired to the status of a subject of international politics, to the status of an independent player, and was moving towards this goal quite confidently. But at some point, they sharply began to drift in another direction, increasingly turning into a geopolitical tool of the United States," the expert added.
In turn, the Director of the Research Initiatives Center "Ma'no" (Uzbekistan), Bakhtier Ergashev, noted that Central Asia, as a union of five countries, still does not even minimally qualify as an independent subject.
- We don't even have a conceptual document that outlines the common interests of the countries in the region, with which we could enter the international arena. We are still an object of influence, not an independent subject. This is my personal opinion, which someone may disagree with. But we still have a long way to go before we can talk about ourselves as a subject ready to present its own position and strategy," the expert emphasized.
According to him, there is regional policy and there are national interests. And in this regard, the Central Asian countries are far from real integration in its classical sense: "we are now at the stage of a process that formally began in 2018 with the first Astana meeting of the heads of Central Asian states, which can be characterized as taking the first steps towards establishing partnerships and ties within the region. Because we have even lost them."
- Informal summits of heads of Central Asian states are already a great success for us. It's good that we manage to gather everyone, discuss and outline some directions at least once a year. I think we shouldn't rush ahead now; we should take small steps. We have not yet had our fill of independence and sovereignty. And only when we overcome this childhood illness, when we understand that part of sovereignty can be transferred to the supranational level, then we will move further along the path of integration. But we haven't grown up to that yet," added B. Ergashev.
A slightly different view was expressed by Murat Beyshenov, an advisor to the Minister of Defense of Kyrgyzstan. He noted that regional integration in Central Asia exists, it's just going very slowly because each country has its own view on these processes.
- Integration encounters national interests, but if they are not silenced but resolved at the bilateral level, they will not hinder the unification process. Moreover, now is not the time to wait and contemplate; there is no time for it - the world is at the highest level of tension. Therefore, for example, if we do not resolve border issues, it will be difficult for us to talk about solving other tasks," added M. Beyshenov.
This thought was supported by international relations expert Baykadam Kuramayev. According to him, before talking about the integration of Central Asian countries, border disputes need to be resolved, i.e., to remove mutual territorial claims.
- No investor, no organization will come to a country where a military conflict can arise at any moment. In recent years, Kyrgyzstan has had conflicts with Tajikistan. Without resolving these issues, it is practically impossible to talk about integration, about the creation of a regional alliance. Therefore, I believe that the first question that the leaders of Central Asian countries should address is border issues. All other issues are solvable. Without territorial disputes and claims, the process whereby the region gains subjectivity will proceed much faster," emphasized the expert.
Source: CEI "Oy Ordo",
CentralasianLIGHT.org,
May 24, 2024