Tajikistan is the last country in Central Asia where the government has not changed for the last 30 years, although everyone has long known the name of the successor - this is the son of President Rahmon Rustam, who now heads the Senate (parliament) and is considered the second person in the country, analysts of the public “Yurt of Analysts” note, reports Ritmeurasia .
Rahmon began preparing for the transition of power in 2016. First of all, amendments were made to the Constitution of Tajikistan to lower the age of presidential candidates.
The second step was an amnesty of capital and property to legalize funds and other assets. This step is considered by experts as an attempt by the president to reach an agreement with the elites in exchange for supporting a successor.
The third step is an amnesty for Tajiks accused of extremism and terrorism, mainly leaders and supporters of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan.
Everything has been ready for the transition of power for a long time, but internal and external circumstances constantly interfere with its implementation. Thus, in 2020, when the country was holding the next presidential election, the transfer of power had to be postponed due to the coronavirus.
Due to quarantines, migrant workers, whose remittances support up to 70% of the population, began to return home en masse. The flow of money into the country has decreased. Rakhmon decided to go to the polls himself so as not to create unnecessary risks at the peak of the socio-economic crisis.
It was further expected that Rahmon would give way to his son after the celebration of the 30th anniversary of Tajikistan's independence in the fall of 2022, as protests in Kazakhstan gave pause to the Tajik leader, who seemed to understand how important it was to leave on time. However, the transit was postponed again. The new estimated date is 2024.
According to some reports, the transition of power is being delayed due to the receiver's problems with controlling aggression. In 2008, during an argument, he shot and wounded his uncle. In 2022, he shot and seriously wounded the head of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan, who refused to carry out his instructions.
Another reason for the delay in transit may not be the personal qualities of the heir, but problems within Rahmon’s large family, who do not want to see Rustam as a successor.
Numerous relatives of Rakhmon, who occupy high positions in government and business, are afraid of losing everything after a change of power - even if it is a change of father to son.
Already, many in the ruling clan are outraged that there was no place for a single relative in the emerging team of the successor. Rakhmon is unable to satisfy the demands of his relatives, and this creates threats to transit.
CentralasianLIGHT.org
March 20, 2024